What a future state value stream map is
A future state value stream map shows the value stream the plant wants in 6 to 12 months: production pulled by customer demand, small controlled inventories, continuous flow wherever possible and a single scheduling point. It is drawn from the current state map and answers one question: what must change so the product flows at the customer's pace?
It is not a long-term dream and not a layout redesign. It is a map with numeric targets (lead time, inventory, number of operators) and an implementation plan with dates and owners.
The 8 key questions of the future state
Rother and Shook's method in Learning to See guides the design with 8 questions, always asked in the same order:
- What is the takt time? Available time ÷ customer demand. See the takt time calculation.
- Build to a finished goods supermarket or directly to shipping? It depends on variety, customer lead time and the cost of holding stock.
- Where can you use continuous flow? In processes with cycle time close to or below takt and no long changeovers. See one-piece flow and the U-shaped cell.
- Where do you need a supermarket with pull? Where continuous flow is not feasible: long changeovers, large batches, distant suppliers or shared capacity.
- What is the single scheduling point (the pacemaker process)? The process that receives the schedule and sets the pace for everything upstream.
- How do you level the mix at the pacemaker? See heijunka.
- What increment of work do you release to the pacemaker? That is the production pitch: takt × pack-out quantity.
- What process improvements are needed? Quick changeover, machine reliability, scrap reduction, line balancing.
Future state map at a glance
The map sums up the 8 questions, the numeric example in this article and the steps of the implementation plan.
Example: the current state
A fictional line making metal brackets. Demand is 450 pieces per day on one 8-hour shift with 30 minutes of scheduled breaks (two 15-minute breaks). Available time = 28,800 − 1,800 = 27,000 s. Takt = 27,000 ÷ 450 = 60 s.
| Step | Cycle time (s) | Inventory after the step (pcs) | Inventory (days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw material | — | 1,350 | 3.0 |
| Cutting | 40 | 1,800 | 4.0 |
| Press | 30 | 900 | 2.0 |
| Welding | 55 | 450 | 1.0 |
| Assembly | 50 | 900 (finished goods) | 2.0 |
| Total | 175 | 5,400 | 12.0 |
Inventory in days = pieces ÷ 450. The stream has a 12-day lead time for only 175 seconds of value-adding work. Value-added ratio = 175 ÷ (12 × 27,000) = 0.05%. Every cycle time is below takt: the capacity exists, the problem is the pushed batch between steps.
Example: the future state
Applying the questions to the case:
- Takt: 60 s.
- Continuous flow: Welding (55 s) and Assembly (50 s) become one cell with 2 operators. The cell cycle is that of the slowest station, 55 s, below takt. Total work content: 105 s, and 105 ÷ 60 = 1.75, so 2 operators.
- Cutting and Press: together 70 s, above takt, and they use machines with changeovers. They stay separate, linked by a 90-piece FIFO lane.
- Supermarket: between the Press and the cell, holding 450 pieces (1 day), replenished by a production kanban.
- Pacemaker: the Welding and Assembly cell receives the schedule. Customer orders are shipped from a finished goods supermarket of 450 pieces (1 day).
- Pitch: pack of 30 pieces × 60 s = 30 minutes, or 15 withdrawals per day.
| Inventory | Current (days) | Future (days) |
|---|---|---|
| Raw material | 3.0 | 1.0 (450 pcs) |
| Cutting → Press | 4.0 | 0.2 (FIFO lane of 90) |
| Press → Welding | 2.0 | 1.0 (supermarket of 450) |
| Welding → Assembly | 1.0 | 0 (continuous flow) |
| Finished goods | 2.0 | 1.0 (450) |
| Total | 12.0 | 3.2 |
Lead time drops from 12 to 3.2 days: a cut of 8.8 days, or 73.3%. Inventory falls from 5,400 to 1,440 pieces. Value-added time stays at 175 s and the ratio becomes 175 ÷ (3.2 × 27,000) = 0.20%. The gain comes from the inventory removed, not from working faster. To measure the financial effect, use value stream costing.
Implementation plan: by loops, starting at the pacemaker
Rother and Shook recommend splitting the future state into loops and implementing from the customer backwards, starting with the pacemaker loop. Each loop has an objective, an action, a metric and a deadline. In the example (fictional dates):
| Loop | What to do | Metric | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pacemaker | Build the Welding + Assembly cell, a 30-minute pitch and a finished goods supermarket | Cycle ≤ 60 s; 15 withdrawals/day met | Weeks 1 to 6 |
| 2. Press and Cutting | 450-piece supermarket, production kanban, FIFO lane, quick changeover on the press | Stock ≤ 1 day; changeover within target | Weeks 7 to 12 |
| 3. Raw material | Frequent supplier deliveries and a replenishment route | Raw material ≤ 1 day | Weeks 13 to 18 |
The press is where quick changeover matters most: see SMED. For supermarket replenishment, see the internal milk run. Labor for each loop comes from takt-based staffing.
Review the plan every 4 weeks at the gemba, comparing target and reality. When the future state is reached, it becomes the new current state and the cycle restarts.
Common mistakes
- Drawing without a measured current state. Inventories and cycle times guessed from memory lead to false targets.
- Continuous flow everywhere. A process with a long changeover or a cycle above takt needs a supermarket, not a forced cell.
- Several scheduling points. If every process receives its own order, the system goes back to pushing.
- A future state without a plan. A map with no loops, dates and owners becomes a poster.
- Ignoring the mix. Without leveling at the pacemaker, the supermarket swings and inventory comes back.
- Tracking only lead time. Also track inventory, on-time delivery and productivity.
Frequently asked questions
What is a future state VSM?
It is the map of the desired value stream, with continuous flow, supermarkets, pull and one scheduling point, together with a plan to get there.
How many questions guide the future state?
Eight, in order: takt, shipping, continuous flow, supermarkets, scheduling point, mix leveling, work increment (pitch) and required improvements.
How do you decide where to use continuous flow?
In sequential processes with a cycle time equal to or below takt, no long changeover and good reliability. In the example, Welding and Assembly.
What time horizon does the future state have?
Usually 6 to 12 months, split into loops implemented in sequence, starting with the pacemaker.
How much can lead time fall?
It depends on the current state. In this article's example, from 12 to 3.2 days (73.3%), because inventory between steps was cut. The numbers are illustrative.
Who builds the future state map?
A team that includes production, quality, maintenance and logistics, led by the person who owns the value stream end to end.
Sources
- ROTHER, M.; SHOOK, J. Learning to See: Value Stream Mapping to Add Value and Eliminate Muda. Cambridge: Lean Enterprise Institute.
- ROTHER, M.; HARRIS, R. Creating Continuous Flow. Cambridge: Lean Enterprise Institute, 2001.
- WOMACK, J. P.; JONES, D. T. Lean Thinking. New York: Free Press.
Keep studying: trusted sources and links
- Lean Enterprise Institute: Lean Lexicon, Value Stream Mapping
- Lean Enterprise Institute: What is Lean?
- Wikipedia: Value-stream mapping
Save this address: Manufatura Enxuta is your school for lean manufacturing. Come back whenever you need to study, with a complete article, a visual map and trusted sources. Follow one of the learning paths or check the A–Z glossary.
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About the author
Lean Manufacturing & Behavioral Management Specialist
Over 20 years in the automotive and metalworking industries (GM and Dana), Lean Manufacturing practitioner since 2006. SENAI instructor and mentor in Brazil’s Brasil Mais Produtivo program, delivering consulting, training and audits for 50+ companies, combining quality, productivity and people development.
